Can you link any of the climate trends to human agency?
Directions for Part A:
Part A includes graphs that will help you understand and interpret changes in precipitation, temperature and other factors and their potential relationship to global warming. Part A also includes questions for you to think about regarding the graphs. You will be able to access the answers to all of the questions posed.
1. In the figure above what is the overall trend represented by the data, especially the 10-year running mean?
Answer:
The overall trend as a decrease in the average annual maximum temperature, until approximately 1982, when the temperature value increased significantly though the end of the decade. 2. How does the maximum temperature at the beginning compare with the end?
Answer:
The maximum temperature at the end of the period was nearly as high as it was at the beginning, with the increase occurring over a much shorter time period.3. How does the maximum temperature in the late 1970s compare with the end of the 1980s?
Answer:
The maximum temperature in the late l970s was at its lowest point, while at the end of the decade had reached some of its highest levels of the 30-year period.4. What could explain this?
Answer:
The late 1970s were associated with some of the coldest and most severe winter’s in U.S. history. January of 1977 was the coldest January in the history of the U.S., and several studies were done of the likelihood of descending into another “Little Ice Age”. Overall, the increase of the maximum temperatures in the final decade of the data presented may represent the first indications of human-induced “global warming”.
- In the figure above what is the overall trend represented by the data, especially the 10-year running mean? Answer:
The overall trend of the average minimum temperature data is a bit different. There is a low value in the early 1980s, but it does not represent the lowest data in the chronologic data set; that occurs at the beginning of the data set in the early 1960s. There are peaks in the early 1970s and at the end of the data set in the late 1980s. The general trend of the 10-year running mean is upward.
- The average minimum data is acting different from the maximum data. There are basically 2 peaks, with a small trough in-between. Is there anything in global warming theory that you have discovered that may explain this earlier increase in the minimum temperature data than what we have found in the maximum data? How does the minimum temperature at the beginning compare with the end?Answer:
Global warming theory indicates that with increasing global and local temperatures, there should be increased rate of evaporation. This should lead to more moisture being available in the atmosphere. This increased moisture in the atmosphere could lead to more cloud cover/fog/haze, which would tend to hold more heat in the lower atmosphere, leading to higher minimum temperatures.
- How does the minimum temperature in the late 1970s compare with the end of the 1980s?Answer:
The minimum temperatures, in the 10-year running mean, increases more than 1 degree, with no instance of a decline over any point of that last decade
- In the figure above what is the overall trend represented by the data, especially the 10-year running mean?Answer:
The averaging of the maximum and minimum data indicates a roughly stable temperature in the first decade, declining average temperatures in the second decade, and rapidly increasing in the 3rd decade.
- Does the pattern or curve of this line more closely resemble the one for maximum temperatures or minimum ones? How does the average temperature at the beginning compare with the end?Answer:
The pattern is a mixture of the 2, but seems to more closely represent the maximum data.
- How does the average temperature in the late 1970s compare with the end of the 1980s?Answer:
The average temperature increased by almost 1 degree over that time period.
- Although this date terminates more than 15 years ago, what was it indicating in the late 1980s already?Answer:
The data from the 1980s indicated a rapidly increasing average temperature, which seems to support the idea that we were entering a period of rapid global warming.
- In the figure above what is the overall trend represented by the data, especially the 10-year running mean?Answer:
Although it varies from year-to-year there is a downward tendency in the size of the daily temperature range, of more than 1 degree Fahrenheit.
- What would a declining temperature range indicate to us about what is happening to maximum and minimum temperature, since the temperature range is a measure of the difference between the maximum and minimum?Answer:
A declining daily temperature range would indicate that the difference between the daily maximum and minimum temperatures is growing smaller and smaller.
- Global warming theory indicates that the increased greenhouse gases would cause the Earth’s atmosphere to hold on to night-time warmth more effectively than increases mid-day temperatures. Does the data tend to agree with that supposition?Answer:
Since minimum temperatures are increasing faster than maximum temperatures, this would appear to be the case. The data does seem to agree with that.
- In the figure above what is the overall trend represented by the data, especially the 10-year running mean?Answer:
A rapid increase in the first decade, with a a very slight increase since then.
- Three of the primary greenhouse gases are water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane. Water vapor is a actually the most effective greenhouse gas. As the temperature rises we would expect more water vapor to be available for precipitation. Does the data support that kind of supposition.Answer:
Since the levels of precipitation have increased significantly, from 39 inches at the beginning of the period to 42 inches at the end, that would appear to be the case. The complication here is that with increasing temperatures rates of evaporation and transpiration would be increasing too.
17. How does the annual precipitation at the beginning of the data period compare to the end?
Answer:
Increasing from 39 inches to 42 inches in the 10-year running mean data. In fact, the last year of the data set showed precipitation far in excess of any other year.
- One of the expectations of global warming theory is the expectation of less dependable precipitation and more droughts in the central areas of continental land masses. Does the data support that supposition if global warming is true?
Answer:
- The data does not support the idea that continental land mass areas would receive less precipitation in a globally warmed environment. One of the suppositions is that global warming affects high latitudes more than tropical ones. Therefore, there is less of a temperature difference north to south in the northern hemisphere. This temperature gradient is one of the things that helps drive and create strong storm systems. A weak temperature gradient would mean that continental storm systems (low pressure areas) would be weaker and less able to transport moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in lower precipitation amounts. The data does not support this. Additionally, it should be remembered that it is both precipitation (low amounts) and evaporation (high amounts) that work to provide drought conditions, not just the lack of rainfall.
- In the figure above what is the overall trend represented by the data, especially the 10-year running mean?Answer:
A general increase, especially late in the period of days of light precipitation.
- How does the number of light precipitation days at the end of the period compare to the beginning?Answer:
A significant increase, from 168 to 184 in the 10-year running mean, an increase of almost 10%.
- In the figure above what is the overall trend represented by the data, especially the 10-year running mean?Answer:
From beginning to end an increase, However, it peaks in the late 1970s.
- How does the number of moderate precipitation change compare from the beginning point of the data and the end of the data?Answer:
In the 10-year running mean data, there are 52 days of moderate precipitation at the beginning, it rises to 60 in the late 1970s, and drops to as low as 56 in the late 1980s, an increase over the entire data set, but somewhat depressed during te 1980s.
- Why might the trend of the data after the late 1970s be significant, and is the upward spike in the last year necessarily significant?Answer:
It may indicate, with increasing temperatures and evaporation, more drought-prone conditions, in the 1980s, due to decreased levels of moderate precipitation. The last upward spike may not be significant, in that that single year may be anomalous.
- In the figure above what is the overall trend represented by the data, especially the 10-year running mean?Answer:
The overall trend, from the beginning point to the end point is down.
- The heavy precipitation data though shows a different trend from the others. What is its variability from year-to-year? When are its peaks and valleys?Answer:
There a concentration of heavy precipitation days in the 1960s. The 5-year running mean data seems to indicate wide swings in the data from year-to-year. The peaks and valleys seem to be 1-2 year periods on the 5-year averaged data.
- Any speculation on the differences we see between the heavy precipitation days data and the others, especially with reference to global warming, or climatic change in general?Answer:
Any differences in the heavy precipitation days would appear to be inconsequential, except with reference to flood or flash-flood events. The reason is that the number of heavy precipitation events is so small over the course of the year has a small impact, and is demonstrated by the great variability from year-to-year.
- In the figure above what is the overall trend represented by the data, especially the 10-year running mean?Answer:
A…
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Can you link any of the climate trends to human agency? was first posted on August 9, 2020 at 12:56 pm.
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